Guest Lecture in Zurich
On February 4, 2015, Prof. Dr. Urs Wälchli opened the Guest Lecture at the Zunfhaus zur Schmiden. He introduced Prof. Dr. Aymo Brunetti and welcomed the guests, alumni and current students.
The Economic Situation: Forecast 2015
The talk started with a survey of the development since the financial crisis, then turned to the recent exchange rate shock, continuing with forecasts before ending with an evaluation of the risks in the Eurozone.
The medium run development shows that the Swiss economy continues to do well compared to its main trading partners. This concerns growth as well as unemployment and especially the debt situation. The recent decision of the SNB to discontinue the exchange rate floor to the Euro is, however, a major shock for Swiss economic development that deteriorates the outlook considerably. It is likely to trigger a sharply reduced dynamic in 2015 that could – depending on the CHF-EUR development – even lead to a short recession. The development in the Eurozone has been a major risk for the Swiss economy before ; with the abolishment of the exchange rate floor, however, the Swiss economy is even more exposed to the ups and downs of the Euro. The talk is rather skeptical about the prospects of a fast improvement in the Eurozone. Recent falls in risk perceptions in the crisis countries have not been a sign of structural improvement but was due to the ECBs policy acting as a painkiller. As the ECB cannot heal the Eurozone’s structural weaknesses the really difficult reforms are still ahead of us. The renewed discussions about a possible Grexit with the election victory of the populists show how difficult it is to impose harsh fiscal and structural reforms in depressed economies.
About Rochester-Bern Executive Programs
At the end of the lecture, Urs Wälchli presented the Rochester-Bern Executive MBA Program. He informed about its structure and content, the schools behind it, candidate requirements and the application procedure.
We would like to thank Prof. Dr. Aymo Brunetti for the inspiring speech and also all our guests for joining us. We enjoyed the discussions during the cocktail very much, and hope to see you soon again.