Guest Lecture in Bern hosted by PostFinance
The event on March 11, 2015 was hosted by PostFinance and took place in the beautiful EnergieLounge in the PostFinance Arena. Prof. Dr. Petra Joerg, Managing Director of the Rochester-Bern Executive Programs, opened the event and welcomed guests and speakers. As a special guest, the Dean of the Simonites Business School in Rochester, Andrew Ainslie, was also present.
Afterwards, Peter Lacher, Head of Operations PostFinance and Member of the Executive Board, gave a short speech before Prof. Dr. Aymo Brunetti started with his guest lecture.
The Economic Situation: Forecast 2015
The talk started with a survey of the development since the financial crisis, then turned to the recent exchange rate shock, continuing with forecasts before ending with an evaluation of the risks in the Eurozone.
The medium run development shows that the Swiss economy continues to do well compared to its main trading partners. This concerns growth as well as unemployment and especially the debt situation. The recent decision of the SNB to discontinue the exchange rate floor to the Euro is, however, a major shock for Swiss economic development that deteriorates the outlook considerably. It is likely to trigger a sharply reduced dynamic in 2015 that could – depending on the CHF-EUR development – even lead to a short recession. The development in the Eurozone has been a major risk for the Swiss economy before ; with the abolishment of the exchange rate floor, however, the Swiss economy is even more exposed to the ups and downs of the Euro. The talk is rather skeptical about the prospects of a fast improvement in the Eurozone. Recent falls in risk perceptions in the crisis countries have not been a sign of structural improvement but was due to the ECBs policy acting as a painkiller. As the ECB cannot heal the Eurozone’s structural weaknesses the really difficult reforms are still ahead of us. The renewed discussions about a possible Grexit with the election victory of the populists show how difficult it is to impose harsh fiscal and structural reforms in depressed economies.
About Rochester-Bern Executive Programs
After the interesting lecture, Petra Joerg shortly presented the Rochester-Bern Executive MBA Program. She informed inter alia about its structure and content. In between, Andrew Ainslie gave some insights from the University of Rochester.
A special thanks goes to PostFinance and their great hosting of the event!
We also would like to thank Prof. Dr. Aymo Brunetti for the inspiring speech and all our guests for join